The price of BTC could be set for a strong reflection this year, says Bloomberg’s senior commodity planner Mike McGlon, as the market shows similar signs to the bottom of 2018.
Bloomberg’s senior commodity tactician Mike McGlone is tipping that the price of Bitcoin (BTC) will rebound in the second half (2H) of 2022.
Sharing his thoughts in his tweet on July 6, McGlone saw positive signs in the data Bloomberg’s Galaxy Crypto Index (BGCI) and the 50-week and 100-week moving averages of BTC’s price. He recommended that the recent indicators are showing similar signs to the bottom of the bear market in 2018, which led a strong rebound in the first half of 2019.
“With the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index nearing a similar drawdown as the 2018 bottom and Bitcoin’s discount to its 50- and 100-week moving averages similar to past foundations, risk vs. reward is tilting toward responsive investors in 2H.”
The BCGI is proposed to measure the performance of the largest crypto assets to regulate a general view of the market’s overall performance. Moving averages recognize the average price of an asset over a specific amount of time such as 50 or 100 days.
Crypto Winter in 2018 was a rough time for BTC, as the price rushed down from the $16,000 region in January to a market bottom of around $3,200 by mid-December according to data from Coingecko. Following the carnage, still, BTC went on to pump to around $13,000 by late June.
McGlone forecast in a follow up post that BTC is either on track for “one of the greatest bull markets in history at a relatively discounted price to start 2H” or that data is showing that the crypto market is starting to fail and scare away investors.
He said, “our bias is [that] Bitcoin adoption is more likely to continue rising.”
McGlone compared the washout in 1H to the “2000-02’s bursting Internet bubble” which saw many firms tank but also paved the way for top companies like Amazon and eBay to grow.
Considering the analysis, yet, is the fact the bearish conditions have been in large part in reply to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s hawkish monetary policy and inflation reel-in attempts via a series of interest rate hikes.
In 2022, the overall crypto market including BTC has suffered from various macro factors such as the Russian attack on Ukraine, global regulation, and unemployment rates. In the meantime, crypto projects and companies collapsing have turned sentiment even more bearish.
McGlone said before 1 month on 5th June, that if the stock market keeps dropping in a “similar velocity as in 1H”, the latest interest 75 basis point rate hike from the Fed in June could be the last one of the years, as the government works to dodge a recession. Such a consequence could result in a bounce across asset classes as investors re-enter the market.
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